Friction & Futures
November Vision 2026 update
Considering people’s perspectives
Our world today is defined by political polarization, economic inequality, technological disruption, and climate change. These interconnected issues call for collaborative action but are often catalysts for social division. Competing interests, ideologies, and values deepen societal rifts, creating friction in increasingly complex and high-stakes ways.
In a time when the resilience of traditional systems and institutions is being tested, people are experiencing heightened levels of uncertainty and fear, which often lead to a desire to safeguard familiar ways of life. The friction is not new; it has been a consistent feature of human interactions and social dynamics throughout history. What’s unique about today’s friction, however, is the pace and scale of its impact across global societies.
The recent U.S. election results have exposed a widening gender gap in voting patterns, as well as growing divisions on key social issues. This is mirrored in Europe, where right-wing policies and leaders are gaining traction, particularly as they resonate with those who feel left behind by economic and cultural changes. For many, these movements represent a stand against a rapidly shifting social landscape; by others, they are seen as threats to progress and inclusivity.
Interconnected friction is complex and challenging to navigate. Economic divides, driven by the cost-of-living crises, are straining many households. While AI and automation have the potential to reshape industries, they may exacerbate disparities. Geopolitical tensions and unstable global conditions add further pressure, creating uncertainty that undermines economic stability. Climate change deepens these challenges, as its impacts disproportionately affect the most vulnerable communities, widening the gap between the privileged and the marginalized.
Friction can be a driver for change. Civil rights movements have emerged from tensions between marginalized groups and established power structures, and scientific advancements often spring from the conflict of competing theories. Discomfort and conflict can reveal underlying issues, pushing societies to confront uncomfortable truths and evolve.
Resistance to change is natural, as it disrupts familiar patterns of living, working, and engaging with the world. Many individuals cling to the familiar or the past as a form of protection in turbulent times. Change can also offer new possibilities and avenues for hope and growth. When we view chaos and discomfort as an opportunity for growth, we can better navigate uncharted territory with resilience and adaptability.
Democracy’s health relies heavily on active engagement with diverse perspectives and on building trust within society. Democracy needs work, individuals and institutions should actively engage in dialogue and resist forces that seek to polarize. Fostering societal cohesion is vital for the future; it is the foundation upon which trust and hope are built and sustained.
This report explores friction’s power: It has the potential to lead to constructive change through dialogue and compromise, but it can also escalate into destructive polarization if left unaddressed. As diverse visions for our collective future collide, friction becomes an unavoidable reality that shapes our present. By thoughtfully navigating this friction, tension can be transformed into a catalyst for a more resilient future.
Banner image, Turbulence by Vivien Zhang
Right, Everything Changes by Shuntyu Suzuki
Download the PDF of the report here
Content
1/Weakening social structures
7/ Generational shift
2/ Economic inequality
8/ The age of technology
3/ Gender rift
9/ Climate friction
4/ Hypermediated culture
10/ Structures of otherness
5/ Doom as a destination
11/ Individual-Collective
6/ Tuning out
12/ Common ground
Take aways
* This report analyses current societal friction recognizing that many issues are complex and far-reaching and do not offer quick solutions. Addressing friction requires businesses to have a future vision and set clear priorities, it is impossible to tackle every issue at once.
* By shedding light on what people are experiencing, it is possible to support them better and engage thoughtfully with their concerns.
* Change requires energy, and embracing these dynamics can help drive it forward.
* It is essential to be realistic, informed, and open-minded, and actively exploring other lenses and perspectives. Even when something isn’t fully understood, start by asking questions. Companies have a social role in guiding people through change; at its core, a company is people.
* When society feels broken, damaged or without hope, we need creativity and vivid imagination to find other ways to be. Even systems that seem stagnated and permanent can be transformed and changed through powerful collective creativity.
1/Weakening social structures
Political tensions and war
The ongoing wars in Ukraine, Israel, and Gaza create a sense of anger, anxiety and uncertainty, reminding people of the complexity and fragility of global stability. For those directly affected, these conflicts are devastating realities marked by loss, displacement, and trauma. The ripple effects touch nearly everyone, driving up energy prices, disrupting supply chains, and impacting people’s lives worldwide.
As global tensions rise and the economy shifts, political polarization and social division worsen. Economic instability only deepens these struggles, people living on the margins feel these pressures most as they struggle to meet basic needs.
Left to right, Ephemeral Truths: the Weight of Words by Ji A Yi, students protesting against the war in Gaza install posters, photo by Carlos Chiossone, Yoko Ono, ‘Peace Is Power’, 2017 poster, How supporters of two opposed positions polarize into two groups over time, research by Laura G. E. Smith, Emma F Thomas, Ana-Maria Bliuc and Craig McGarty
Deeply divided world
When facts, opinions, and emotions blur, people become more entrenched in their beliefs. In a post-truth world, understanding the complexity and long-term impact of these conflicts becomes even more difficult. Differences in values cause tension, and many people choose remote or limited in-person work to avoid clashes with colleagues with different views. Social isolation and algorithms that reinforce our existing beliefs make these divides even deeper.
In today’s polarised society, people and businesses are increasingly cautious about taking a stance on societal issues to avoid backlash. In light of the exhaustion with division, many might be tempted to adopt an avoidance strategy. Neutrality is often not possible, and the result of this can be interpassivity. Authenticity, examination, listening, and, if possible, dialogue and building relationships may be the best strategies.
Political polarization
2/Economic inequality
Redistribute wealth
Economic inequality, the growing wealth gap within society and between people, has led to friction between socio-economic classes. The gap between rich and poor manifests in unequal access to education, healthcare and opportunity and this imbalance exacerbates existing societal divisions, undermining social trust and fueling resentment.
If left unaddressed, this gap could deepen, with potentially devastating consequences for both individuals and societies. The way forward requires systemic change to redistribute wealth, education, provide equal opportunities, and promote inclusive growth. As protectionism grows and a shift away from globalism takes shape, the tension between nations and communities could widen further, limiting opportunities for international collaboration and reinforcing disparities.
Left to right, The Indestructible Asset by Absolut Strategy Research, Devaluing an Image by Marco Godoy, Remedy Towers by Jihoon Kim and Brenna Elise Franse, Los Angeles Affordable Housing Challenge ideas competition, Packaging for German discount chain Penny, Meghan Pexton via TikTok
Away from overconsumption
Economic inequality lies at the heart of many societal tensions, and addressing it requires more inclusive practices and a fairer distribution of opportunities and resources. Businesses play a crucial role in bridging this gap, especially as concerns over climate change and the cost of living grow.
While many people struggle to make ends meet, others face issues with overconsumption. Displays of wealth, once aspirational, now seem out of touch in a world increasingly aware of the harm caused by overconsumption, not only to the environment and workers but also to society as a whole. This movement also challenges the dominance of low-quality goods and fast fashion, while advocating for broader access to essentials and promoting well-being through education, culture, sports, nature, and community.
Systemic change
3/Gender rift
Shifting values
In recent elections, we have seen evidence of a growing divide between the worldviews of young men and women. While many young women advocate for progressive social policies, young men increasingly gravitate toward conservative ideals, leading to a heightened “us vs. them” mentality. This political polarization reshapes family dynamics and influences personal relationships, making it harder for men and women to find common ground.
For many young men, shifting norms in education and the workplace have introduced new sources of uncertainty. Economic opportunities for women have expanded, which is essential progress, but it sometimes leaves men questioning their own place in the modern world. Many feel pressure to redefine what it means to “be a man” in an era where traditional male roles have less clear meaning. This has led some men, particularly those facing economic struggles, to look back to traditional values, feeling that feminism and social change may have gone too far in ways that inadvertently harm them.
Left to right, Clown World by Jamie Tahsin and Matt Shea, Flemming Efterskole gymnastics after-school, What questions do teenage boys ask when they’re anonymous? by The Man Cave Australia, The Gender Gap Historical exit polls from presidential elections. 2024 numbers are based on an October NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, Women are Angry by Jennifer Cox
“I want to live my life.”
Declining fertility rates reflect shifting priorities among today’s youth, with many valuing personal freedom, diverse experiences, and career growth over traditional paths like marriage and parenthood. Financial instability also plays a role, making the costs of raising children seem out of reach. In South Korea, the 4B movement encourages women to reject relationships and motherhood until gender equality is achieved. Following Trump’s appeal among young male voters and the threats to reproductive and LGBTQ+ rights, many women are discussing ways to decenter men from their lives.
Bridging the growing gender divide requires advancing opportunities and equality for women and girls and understanding and addressing the challenges young men face. The societal expectation for men to “stay strong and silent” can make them hesitant to open up about mental health struggles or the economic and personal insecurities they experience. By fostering positive role models and creating space for discussions, we can help young men and women feel seen and valued, encouraging healthier relationships, self-identity, and, ultimately, a more balanced society.
Opposite ideaologies
4/Hyper mediated culture
Societal fragmentation
In a hypermediated culture, the constant flow of information shapes our ideas and the way we communicate and interact. The media we consume influences our sense of who we are, our beliefs, our opinions our sense of identity. People can feel connected and isolated at the same time. Social media platforms provide unlimited opportunities for participation but also fuel polarization, echo chambers, and political confrontations.
The rise of fake news and AI-generated content poses new challenges to our ideas of reality and trust. It is hard to know what is real, and it requires us to find new ways to maintain a shared understanding of reality and keep our social connections strong.
Left to right, photo by Modem Works, original quote by Janel Comeau, Sense of Space, Connectome Architecture by Refik Anadol, Visitors at Frieze London, art by Pilar Corrias, Deputy Mayor of Newham Cllr Charlene McLean at the unveiling of Reaching Out sculpture by Thomas J Price
More fluid definitions
In today’s world, traditional sources of meaning, such as education, career paths, and relationships, are being reshaped by rapid changes in technology, culture, and the economy. Success does not require a degree; work has broken free from the office and the 9-to-5 grind. In relationships, fixed roles and labels are replaced by more fluid definitions. Intimacy is not just romantic between two people; it can be platonic or based on shared emotions and experiences. This openness to non-traditional relationships shows a wider acceptance of different ways to live a fulfilling life.
Broadcasting content is often mistaken for journalism, but it is increasingly important to remain critical. Critical thinking is a foundational skill that is pivotal in navigating complexity and making informed decisions. Brands need to be mature and forward-looking enough to have intelligent conversations and acknowledge and accept criticism of whatever is directed at them.
Shared realities
The Brennan Center for Justice
“Al has significantly enhanced the ability to spread disinformation at a massive scale, especially during critical events like elections. The intersection of Al and social media algorithm has led to a more efficient way of weaponizing information, making it a key driver of geopolitical instability and social unrest.”
5/Doom as a destination
Dark expressions
For a while now, neither politics, science fiction, nor music have offered people a way out of current misery. Where once disaffection was externalized via music and art, social, environmental and economic catastrophe is now privatized and internalized. Sad or aggressive music has a role; if people stop listening and don’t want to know anymore, they are turning themself off. Directing pain and despair outwards can release aggression and the energy needed to break the current impasse.
Young people are faced with pressures and mental health issues, making it essential to channel their feelings into forms of dark expression. By acknowledging and showing fears, people can express the negative emotions of growing up in a world without a troubled future perspective. Expressing darkness, a sense of desolation, disorder, and loss of hope reflects the need for a future to look forward to and a desire to break free from societal constraints and the current systems of our world.
Left to right, Echoes of Memory by Jianing Zhang, photo by Pierre Debusschere, Bullet, Pellet, Tablet by Lulu Yang, Songs of a Lost World by The Cure
Feelings of where we are now as human beings
Expressions of doom, fear, and uncertainty become powerful destinations for creativity, emerging as a dark beauty in music, fashion, and art. For artists like Rick Owens, Travis Scott or The Cure darkness isn’t just an aesthetic choice; it’s a deep exploration of raw, unfiltered emotion. By embracing these shadows, they transform feelings of alienation and existential dread into an art form.
Dark expressions make space for feelings that society often overlooks or downplays; dystopian visuals capture the complex emotions of today’s youth. There’s power in the shadows, and meaning can flourish in the rawness of doom. Darkness is not an escape but a way to confront reality. Perfection can be seen as unrealistic, manufactured or unreal, ironic or pretentious.
Going against the grain
6/Tuning out
Coping mechanisms
Some people choose to divert their thoughts and find joy in simpler things to relieve stress, uncertainty, and the challenges that life brings by consciously stepping away from the news and focusing instead on activities that bring neutrality and lightness into their lives. This could be actively seeking beauty or immersing oneself in uplifting experiences like art, music, gardening, great food, or good company. A filter bubble can become a place of refuge, a protective space with fortified walls.
Another way to cope is through physical activities, which connect our bodies and minds to the natural world. Being active through sports or communal activities fosters health, connection, and shared experience, countering isolation.
Left to right, image by XTERRA, photo by Quarter Sheet Restaurant, photo by SlamJam Milan, photo by Migueltzinta Solís
Diverting the focus
Creativity can anchor people in the present, providing an escape from the endless flow of news and information. Stepping away from screens and exploring interesting hobbies encourages a focus on doing, learning, and collaboration that counters the anxieties of the world. Others may reach back into nostalgia and embrace the past through childhood memories, analogue technologies, classic novels or movies, placing themselves in another reality, another time.
People also find comfort in the whimsical and unpredictable, embracing the humorous, the bizarre, and the delightfully absurd. By leaning into what is odd or silly, they disrupt the weightiness of daily existence with moments of laughter and play. Acknowledging life’s strangeness can be an empowering way to distance oneself from daily stresses and reality.
Escapism and denialism
Toni Morrison
“Like failure, chaos contains information that can lead to knowledge—even wisdom.”
7/Generational shift
Understanding generational issues
Each generation tends to be distinct not only because of the influence of their parents but also as a reaction to the world shaped by the mid-life generation in power. This creates a constant cycle of change with each new generation. The Strauss-Howe generational theory outlines a recurring pattern where same-aged groups exhibit specific behavioural traits that evolve roughly every twenty years. These cyclical shifts in mood and outlook influence culture, politics, society, and even workplace dynamics, shaping organisational development.
Older adults frequently face ageism through limited job opportunities, reduced access to training, and the perception that they are resistant to change or technologically outdated. This bias harms individuals’ self-worth and economic security and deprives organizations and communities of diverse perspectives. Reducing ageism requires a cultural shift that recognizes and values the contributions people of all ages can make.
Left to right, This girl can campaign, climate activists Bodhi Patil and David Suzuki, Sunnei SS25 Show faces, Collage by Tahsine, South African artist Xhanti Zwelendaba in a sweat suit of Good Good Good
Youth perspective
As populations shift, with some regions seeing an increase in older adults while others are youthful, new social and economic challenges arise. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), over 40% of young people are unemployed, which has led to more extremism. Studies show that half of young adults who join rebel groups do so because they cannot find jobs.
Young people are stuck. Young people’s frustration with the housing crisis, among other quality-of-life concerns, makes them feel they cannot grow and develop themselves. Living at home out of economic necessity limits their development and changes their life path. Looking ahead, it is important for businesses to understand and embrace the cycle of generational change and analyse generational changes in values. With five generations now working side by side, companies can benefit greatly from fostering intergenerational learning, which highlights the value of age diversity and the unique insights each generation brings.
The connections we share
General UN Secretary Antonio Guterres
"We cannot create a future fit for our grandchildren with a system built by our grandparents."
8/The age of technology
AI divide
As artificial intelligence becomes more powerful, there is a risk of an “AI divide” between countries and people. Disparities in access to digital infrastructure, advanced technology, quality education, and training deepen existing inequalities. The world must work to ensure that the existing digital divide does not also turn into an AI divide in a way that leaves out the Global South.
Africa needs $3.4 trillion in funding for infrastructure projects to support its digital transformation. The gender AI divide means that technology is developed with just one perspective, highlighting the need for a more global, inclusive AI to ensure diverse and inclusive solutions.
Left to right, Image by Tashine, Ferrari factory tour assembly line, StarDust by Debashish Chakrabarty, Figure’s humanoid robots work and assist at BMW’s car production factory
Limits of human understanding
The age of technology exposes the boundaries of our human understanding and reveals the limits of our cognitive and physical abilities. It confronts us with our biological constraints and unique individual traits, reminding us that human bodies are not standardised, unlike machines. The emergence of AI-generated art, music, and writing challenges our notions of the value and nature of human creativity. As automation takes over routine tasks, we need to rethink the role of work in providing meaning and purpose in our lives.
The issue is not about machines that are becoming more human but that humans are becoming more machine-like in the race to keep up. Rather than striving to resemble machines, we should prioritise enhancing our natural intelligence and reconnecting with our human senses and innate wisdom.
Humane future
Kofi Sika Latzoo
“By closing the digital divide, gaming presents an economic opportunity for a new generation across Africa. Africa faces a stark digital divide, with a massive gap in digital skills that hamper economic development. According to a study by the International Finance Corporation about 230 million jobs across the continent will require digital skills by 2030.”
9/Climate friction
A friction timeline
The accelerating climate timeline will create increasing friction between nations as they struggle to balance immediate economic needs with long-term sustainability goals. This tension will manifest in geopolitical conflicts, resource scarcity, and uneven adaptation to environmental changes.
Many conveniences we take for granted, such as unlimited access to water, cheap energy, and globalized supply chains, will become increasingly scarce, forcing people to rethink daily consumption habits. More sustainable consumption habits will likely slow GDP growth in traditional high-consumption sectors, such as manufacturing and retail, as demand for non-essential goods declines. This may be offset by growth in green industries and services, renewable energy, and circular economies, potentially leading to a more resilient but less consumption-driven GDP model.
Left to right, Installation by Fabian Knecht, Clarissa Tossin, Unmapping the World Sculpture by Clarissa Tossin, Aerocene Backpack Public Sculptures Project by Studio Tomás Saraceno, A three-screen video shows performers posing as celestial beings by Caravan Projects
A new reality
Climate change has become a polarizing issue, with debates transcending data and entering emotionally charged territory. Climate activists emphasize the urgency of global warming, and climate deniers challenge the scientific consensus and frame their opposition around concerns about economic stability, government intervention, and personal freedoms.
The current political shifts in the Western world prioritize economic growth and nationalism over global climate action; today’s choices have profound implications for future generations. Bridging the divide between activists, deniers, and policymakers requires a progressive approach that aligns environmental stewardship with economic visions. The climate debate is a critical crossroads for humanity. Again, 2024 will be the hottest year on record; preparing for warmer surroundings and creating a vision for a different tomorrow can help save many lives.
Planet under pressure
Stacy Wolff
“To design for the world, we must reflect the world. With climate change shifting priorities, it is about designing with intention and turning waste into opportunity and value.”
10/Structures of otherness
The space that is home
The sharp rise in people fleeing war and conflict, from 11.7 million in 2013 to 37.6 million in 2023, has intensified feelings of “otherness” towards migrants and refugees. Due to increased insecurity, people focus on their own safety; they may see those fleeing danger as threats to their lives and circumstances, leading to exclusion.
Independent media is crucial in breaking down these barriers, addressing ignorance, and showing the humanity of displaced people. Refugees often arrive feeling broken and alone, facing cultural differences, language issues, and a lack of connection and support.
Left to right, Anywhere and Anytime about the right to move freely by Margherita Moscardini, Asalto, a public intervention video projection by Studio Daniel Canogar, portrait of Olga Tsybytovska by Es Devlin for Congregation
Caring
As societies grow more diverse, cultural clashes are becoming more frequent. To break down barriers of separation, we need to first recognize and challenge our prejudices and biases. Most people are not defined by a single place or mindset; they embody more complex identities shaped by multinational influences, immigration, and diaspora experiences.
A more nuanced understanding of others is essential to move beyond the “us versus them” mentality. Meeting strangers face-to-face can deepen this understanding, especially in a world increasingly mediated by technology. Creating safe spaces for these interactions allows both parties to feel secure. Sharing stories of positive change and acknowledging that caring is a universal human trait, whether for ourselves or others, helps bridge divides and build connections across differences.
Cultural clashes
11/Individual/ collective
Post individualism
Individuality has been the focus for a long time, but collective movements, reimagined communities, and the influence of fandoms suggest that we are moving beyond hyper-individualism to find deeper meaning and connection with others.
This doesn’t mean we are simply going back to collectivism. Because of the poly crisis, people’s individual exhaustion is growing, and they become less concerned about global issues. The world seems out of one’s control, and when life is uncertain, people increasingly focus on their own needs and their physical and mental health.
Left to right, SITuaTHING by Carla Demonte, Communal dining at Absalon, Copenhagen, image and quote by Tahsine, The Story Inside by Carlotta Allum, Observatory Central St. Martins, London
A more genuine self
In a post-individual future, brands might become “headless,” shifting control from CEOs to customers. This change encourages a mindset shift from seeing people as consumers to viewing them as a community. Brands will focus on solving problems, building closer relationships, and promoting values that matter. They will aim to deliver long-term value and connect with people like individuals do.
Embracing post-individualism, brands will prioritize transparency and environmental sustainability. Authenticity means admitting they are selling something, even if it is not perfect. Instead of being flawless, brands should embrace their contradictions and show a more genuine side to their audiences.
Authenticity
12/Common ground
Commonality
Establishing common ground is essential in multi-stakeholder projects, especially when addressing complex problems. This process must be deliberate, making shared understandings explicit while also acknowledging and exploring both similarities and differences in perspectives. By integrating diverse viewpoints, new understandings can emerge, fostering deeper collaboration.
Community bonding initiatives play a key role in building this common ground such as public art projects and sports leagues to promote fitness, teamwork, and friendly competition, while cultural events celebrate diversity, encouraging connection and mutual appreciation.
Left to right, Alternative London Tours, Seeds of Hope Community Gardening, The Yard Run Club, The Art of Gathering by Priya Parker
You can download the PDF of the report here
Building community
In a world marked by increasing social isolation, thoughtful design can play a crucial role in fostering human connection and strengthening community ties. By creating spaces that encourage face-to-face interactions, design can help bridge divides, build empathy, and spark genuine dialogue.
A growing movement towards localization is reinforcing this, as people show renewed interest in supporting local businesses, farmers’ markets, and community initiatives. The rise of community gardens, neighbourhood associations, and volunteer groups fosters shared purpose and collaboration. Even something as simple as sharing a meal can enhance social cohesion, weaving a stronger sense of belonging and community.